Australia needs no introduction when discussing the World Cup. The three-time champions (1987, 1999, 2003) are to cricket what Brazil is to football - basically, unbeatable. They play cricket at a standard no other team can match on a consistent basis, and they do so in both versions of the game (tests and ODIs), something virtually impossible for any other team. Yet, in the past month they have lost two series back-to-back, and it appears that their post-Ashes celebrations are taking the shape of England’s similar woes after winning the 2005 Ashes. Australia seem jaded, and while their loss to England in the Commonwealth Bank best-of-three finals could be seen as one-off, their three consecutive defeats to New Zealand a week later, despite posting totals of 336 and 346, has left them, and the rest of the world, shell-shocked. Stand-in captain Michael Hussey, Australia’s middle-order mainstay, pretty much summed it up when he admitted his team were demoralized. Such losses are bound to bring back haunting memories of their remarkable loss to South Africa, after they posted what was the highest ODI total in cricket history: 434, only to see it eclipsed 4 hours later by a resurgent South African side. Australia now will feel uncomfortable with any total their batsmen set, and without Brett Lee and Shane Warne, and with an aging Glenn McGrath, they will have their work cut out for them in the bowling department to restrict other teams who no longer fear them.

Key players: Ricky Ponting, Michael Hussey, Shane Watson.

Outcome: Semi-finals, at best.

Seed 2: Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka may not be the team that immediately comes to mind when one thinks of possible winners. And, with their drubbing at the hands of India in the recent friendlies, followed by a loss to New Zealand in their final warm-up match, it is curious how they will justify their second seeding. Yet, it must not be forgotten that they lost to India while resting two of their best, and the world’s best, bowlers in Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan. Count those two in, and suddenly the Lankans are a very different beast. With pitches suiting slow, low bounce and a lot of turn, both those bowlers will be especially relevant. Furthermore, with smaller grounds in general, powerful hitters like Sanath Jayasuria and the fleet-footed Kumar Sangakkara will be a handful to deal with for any opposition fielding side. Having said that, the Sri Lankan top-order has, in fact, been the very thorn in their side for almost a year now, and it boggles the mind given the caliber of batsmen present. Therefore, Sri Lanka’s hopes will depend on how deep they can bat (enter Russell Arnold), and how much damage Muralitharan can do in the space of 10 overs.

Key Players: Sanath Jayasuria, Muttiah Muralitharan.

Outcome: Semi-finals, at best.

Seed 3: New Zealand

The Kiwis have reached the semi-finals four times out of the past eight world cups, and that gives us an indication of exactly how tough they are. Looked at one way, they are very tough and consistently in the mix with a 50% probability of making the last-four. But, looked at another way, they are not tough enough to progress beyond the semi-finals despite so many attempts. One wonders then, if a fifth semi-final showing will make any difference. Is there anything about this team that is different from the previous ones? No. New Zealand are packed with all-rounders, but few specialists, and as such, their seeding of 3 and world-ranking of 4 makes sense, for ODIs are all about all-rounders. Yet, when it comes to the big one, the World Cup, their mental makeup breaks down and they falter at the crucial stages. In Shane Bond and Stephen Fleming they have two outstanding match-winners, and with a team that can bat very deep, and the best left-arm orthodox spinner in the business (Daniel Vettori), this Kiwi side has its best chance for glory than ever before. Buoyed by their recent thrashing of their more lofty neighbors, and then their defeat of Sri Lanka in the warm-up match, New Zealand will start the tournament in very hungry mood. How they translate that hunger into mental fortitude, especially in the closing stages of the tournament, will decide their fate.

Key Players: Stephen Fleming, Shane Bond.

Outcome: Semi-finals, at best (yet again).

Seed 4: Pakistan

That Pakistan blow hot and cold is as sure as sunrise and sunset is a cliché fast growing stale. Despite their recent awesome form in test cricket, largely on the back of Mohammad Yousuf’s purple patch, their one-day outfit has been far less convincing. And with internal strife in the form of Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Asif’s exclusion from the squad, and now the requirement to speak only in urdu when addressing the press, Pakistan often appear as a team that puts itself under undue stress. Undoubtedly, they possess ample firepower in the batting department, with seasoned Inzamam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Yousuf and Younis Khan a formidable trio, and the dashing Shahid Afridi always capable of taking the match away. But, unlike Imran Khan’s team that blazed through to victory in 1992, this Pakistan side will struggle for lack of bowling penetration. Rana Naved-ul-Hasan, Umar Gul and Danish Kaneria will surprise a few teams who choose to underestimate them, but without the fiery Shoaib and Asif, it is unlikely that opposition batsmen will fear the Pakistan bowlers more than is necessary. Pakistan may well prove to be the dark horse in this tournament, garnering little attention yet full of big-match experience and World Cup pedigree (3 SFs, 1 RU, 1W in 8 appearances). As always, though, their success and failure will have more to do with them than their opposition.

Key Players: Inzamam-ul-Haq, Umar Gul.

Outcome: Semi-finals, at best.

Seed 5: South Africa

Now here is a side that I feel will do much damage in this World Cup. In the past year, South Africa have done what all pundits, and even players in fact, would have predicted impossible. They not only toppled a landmark world record-breaking score of 434 runs in the very next innings, but they did so against a team others would not even have bothered trying, i.e. Australia. And since, they have single-mindedly focused on one goal and achieved it, to topple the mighty Australians from their #1 ranking, a post they have held, well, since forever! And the reason behind all this? Their brand of “brave cricket.” I fancy the proteas to do very well in this tournament, and most of their success will come from sheer tenacity. The South Africans have always felt like they’ve been left behind, which they were until their late World Cup debut in 1992, where they scorched their way to the semi-finals. Eight years later, and they were denied a shot at the Cup after a dramatic semi-final against the Aussies, which saw both teams end with tied scores. With a first-round exit in the last World Cup, the proteas will enter this tournament with nothing to lose, and will know that they have what it takes to go the distance. Damage batsmen like Herchelle Gibbs, Graeme Smith and Justin Kemp are well supported by middle-order grinders like Jacques Kallis and Mark Boucher. Makhaya Ntini and Shaun Pollock are amongst the best new-ball pair, and Kallis will provide the perfect foil with his medium-pace deliveries on pitches suited for such bowling. In addition, the South African fielding, under newly appointed coach Jonty Rhodes, is simply outstanding. The only weakness I see in this side is the lack of a genuine spin bowler. How that plays into this tournament and affects their cause remains to be seen, but South Africa have everything going their way and are serious contenders to lift the trophy.

Key Players: Graeme Smith, Jacques Kallis, Shaun Pollock.

Outcome: Semi-finals and beyond.

Seed 6: West Indies

The Windies face the daunting task of undoing history. No host nation has ever won the World Cup, and this ninth rendition places the dilemma squarely on Brian Lara’s men. Strangely, in a way, the Windies have already made history by hosting their first ever World Cup, and who is to say they will not continue in similar vein by going for broke? They certainly have the license to do so for not much is expected of this team, and after their drubbing at the hands of Pakistan and then India prior to the Cup, followed by a shambolic batting collapse in their final Cup warm-up match (89/10 in 25 overs), the media, public, and possibly other teams, may be writing them off already. But I am not going to. The West Indians are best when pushed against the wall and little is expected of them. They seem to revel in proving people wrong, and their consistent success in the Champions Trophies suggests they have the gall to tackle large-scale tournaments. In Brian Lara and Chris Gayle they have two destructive batsmen who can easily force the pace of a match. Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan will bring solidity to the middle order, and Dwayne Bravo and Marlon Samuels can deepen the lineup. But like Australia, the Windies will also field a relatively weaker bowling side, and much will fall on Gayle’s shoulders as he will assume the key all-rounder position within the team. Having said that, the young crop of pace bowlers may bowl out of their skins in front of their home support, and that could prove to be decisive. The West Indies open the tournament with a very tricky encounter against Pakistan, but known for their fast starts, I predict the Windies will win and carry on the momentum far into the tournament.

Key Players: Brian Lara, Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo

Outcome: Semi-finals and beyond.

Seed 7: England

Where does one start with England? After a thrashing in the Ashes, they rebounded for an unexpected victory against the Australians beating them thrice in a row, only for order to be restored after a sound thrashing by the same opponents in their final warm-up match. England are fast approaching Pakistan’s standards for whimsy, and unless Michael Vaughan can rally his exhausted troops for one last push, this will be a short Caribbean vacation for them. They are also precariously placed in a rather tricky group, with “minnows” Kenya and Canada easily capable of rocking the boat, and quite severely! Kenya proved in the last world cup just how unpredictable one-day cricket can be by reaching the semi-finals. And Canada boast some batsmen that could wobble the Englishmen especially if they catch them half-asleep from exhaustion. England have had a very long season, and with Andrew Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen, two perfect one-day players on paper, in indifferent form, team morale is bound to be low. As always, much responsibility will fall on Vaughan’s shoulders, but with his injury worries constantly at the back of his and his teammates’ minds, England are going to struggle from the very beginning.

Key Players: Michael Vaughan, Paul Collingwood, Jon Lewis

Outcome: Early exit.

Seed 8: India

For a team packed with so many riches, it is surprising that they are seeded eighth. But, that’s about the only concern the Indians should have. With the return of Sourav Ganguly and the inclusion of Anil Kumble, India approaches the tournament with its strongest ever lineup. Even stronger, I would argue, than the last world cup, where but for Australia, India would have easily won their second World Cup. Not one team was able to beat them then, and with Kumble, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, and Dinesh Karthik (as reserve ‘keeper-batsman), India are looking even more explosive than 4 years ago. So do they have any weaknesses? Yes. On the field, where an aging side may concede extra runs that will have to be made up by the batsmen. And, at the very top, where Virender Sehwag’s form with the bat has been completely off-key, and Robin Uthappa has never played a tournament of this magnitude. The batting progress will fall on the worthy shoulders of three statesmen who have carried that burden for a very long time: Ganguly, Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar. And there is no doubt that the three will be very ably supported by Dhoni and Yuvraj Singh, giving each of them the confidence needed to bat freely and force the pace of the innings when required. India’s bowling is also very deep, with battle-hardy warhorses like Zaheer Khan and Ajit Agarkar leading the way for young sensations S. Sreesanth and Munaf Patel. Harbhajan Singh and Kumble complete a roster of big names. The Indians swept aside all teams before them in the previous World Cup, and barring Australia, their nemesis, and possibly South Africa, will feel very confident against any other opposition. Their success against fellow Asian countries in World Cup matches (Pakistan has never beaten them in a World Cup match) will ensure that they race through their group stage (comprising two more Asian countries – Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) and build momentum from the start.

Key Players: Sourav Ganguly, Sachin Tendulkar, S. Sreesanth

Outcome: Semi-finals and beyond.

Party-crasher

Bangladesh may be unseeded, but with their astonishing win over New Zealand in a warm-up match, they will be exuding confidence ahead of their first clash against India. In Mashrafe Mortaza and Abdur Razzak they have two outstanding bowling prospects, and it will be foolish for any team to underestimate them in this tournament.

Final Word

Regardless of the outcome over the next seven weeks, this World Cup marks what will likely be the end of many legendary careers. Sanath Jayasuria, Brian Lara and Glenn McGrath are three elderly statesmen who we will almost definitely not see four years from now in the next installment of this great event. I have mentioned three, but undoubtedly there will be others. Each will be looking for his swansong, and hopefully we will benefit as the audience in watching him achieve it. Remember, as you watch your favorite team play, to take a moment to admire and congratulate these great players and athletes who have given so much to the game, and contributed in no small way to our obsession with it. Long live cricket! Let the games begin!